CAPS 2018 HWT & HMT Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast Product


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This webpage shows post-processed ensemble products, including postage-stamp and spaghetti plots,
ensemble mean in the form of Probability Matching (PM), ensemble maximum, ensemble probability, and
neighborhood probability maps, of selected fields. This webpage is for demonstration purpose. It doesn't
include all available ensemble products generated from the experiment.

Highlight in 2018: 38 ensemble members -- 27 WRF-ARW (hybrid: initial perturbation + multiple physics)
and 11 FV3 members , with 3 km horizontal grid spacing and 51 vertical levels; 36-60h forecast initiated at
0000 UTC; A localized probability matching mean (LPM) algorithm is demonstrated.

Post-processed ensemble products are based on a 10-member sub-ensemble. Neighborhood probabilities
are calculated using a 40 km Radius of Impact (ROI) and a 2D Gaussian smoother with a sigma value of 10.

The CAPS 2018 Spring Experiment Plan document details the ensemble system configuration.

Previous years' SSEF ensemble product pages: 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010,
                                                                                            2009, 2008, 2007

Last updated by Fanyou Kong (fkong@ou.edu)