CAPS 2010 HWT Spring Experiment Ensemble Forecast Product


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This webpage shows post-processed ensemble products, including postage-stamp and spaghetti plots,
ensemble mean in the form of Probability Matching (PM), ensemble maximum, ensemble probability,
and neighborhood probability maps, of selected fields. This webpage is for demonstration purpose. It
doesn't include all available ensemble products generated from the experiment.

Multi-model ensemble system: 26 ensemble members - 19 WRF-ARW, 5 WRF-NMM, and 2 ARPS
(hybrid: initial perturbation + physics perturbation); 4 km horizontal grid spacing; 51 vertical levels; 30 h
forecast initiated at 0000 UTC

Post-processed ensemble products are based on a 15-member sub-ensemble. The neighborhood
probabilities are calculated using a 40 km Radius of Impact (ROI) and a 2D Gaussian smoother with
a sigma value of 10.

NEW in 2010: a) Expand domain to cover entire continental United States (CONUS); b) Upgrade to
WRFV3.1.1; c) Change membership combination for WRF ARW and NMM cores.
The CAPS 2010 Spring Experiment Plan document details the ensemble system configuration.


Last updated by Fanyou Kong (fkong@ou.edu)