CAPS 2014 HWT Spring Experiment Ensemble Forecast Product


April 2014
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat


01 02 03 04 05
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30


May 2014
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat




01 02 03
04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2014
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
01 02 03 04 05 06 07
08 09 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30






This webpage shows post-processed ensemble products, including postage-stamp and spaghetti plots,
ensemble mean in the form of Probability Matching (PM), ensemble maximum, ensemble probability, and
neighborhood probability maps, of selected fields. This webpage is for demonstration purpose. It doesn't
include all available ensemble products generated from the experiment.

Multi-model ensemble system: 24 ensemble members -- 20 WRF-ARW and 4 COAMPS
(hybrid: initial perturbation + physics perturbation); 4 km horizontal grid spacing; 51 vertical levels;
60h forecast initiated at 0000 UTC.

Post-processed ensemble products are based on a 12-member sub-ensemble. Neighborhood probabilities
are calculated using a 40 km Radius of Impact (ROI) and a 2D Gaussian smoother with a sigma value of 10.
New in 2014: A daily 24-hour-long 8-member ensemble is initialized at 12 UTC, running at OSCER; An
experimental  EnKF radar assimilation forecast over the US domain; Two simulated  IR channels (6.48,
10.7µm) Brightness Temperature (BT) are produced using CRTM; Polarmetric radar simulator product (ZDR,
KDP) are demonstrated (Jung et al. 2010).

The CAPS 2014 Spring Experiment Plan document details the ensemble system configuration.

Previous years' SSEF ensemble product pages: 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007


Last updated by Fanyou Kong (fkong@ou.edu)