CAPS 2015 HWT Spring Experiment EnKF-based Ensemble Forecast Product


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This webpage shows post-processed ensemble products, including postage-stamp and spaghetti plots,
ensemble mean in the form of Probability Matching (PM), ensemble maximum, ensemble probability, and
neighborhood probability maps, of selected fields. This webpage is for demonstration purpose. It doesn't
include all available ensemble products generated from the experiment.

Highlight in 2015: An experimental  EnKF radar assimilation forecast over the CONUS domain, at 3-km
horizontal grid spacing. This page shows products from ensemble forecast using the final cycle of
EnKF analyses at 0000 UTC. Two sets of deterministic forecasts, one using EnKF mean and another
using 3DVAR analysis, each with Thompson and WSM6 microphysics, are also run.

Post-processed ensemble products are based on a 12-member sub-ensemble. Neighborhood probabilities
are calculated using a 40 km Radius of Impact (ROI) and a 2D Gaussian smoother with a sigma value of 10.

The CAPS 2015 Spring Experiment Plan document details the ensemble system configuration.

Previous years' SSEF ensemble product pages: 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007

Last updated by Fanyou Kong (fkong@ou.edu)